China's comprehensive CIF import price index of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

According to the China's comprehensive CIF import price index of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) released by the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, from December 12th to 18th, 2022, China's comprehensive CIF import price index of liquefied propane was 131.57, down 6.08% month on month and 7.73% year on year; China's comprehensive CIF import price index of liquefied butane was 140.91, up 3.37% month on month and 1.52% year on year.

In terms of international pricing benchmark, Saudi Aramco announced that the contract price (CP) of propane in December was $650 US dollars/ton, up $40 US dollars/ton from last month, up 6.56% month on month, and down 18.24% from the same period last year; The contract price (CP) of butane in December was US $650/t, an increase of US $40/t compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.56% month on month and a decrease of 13.33% compared with the same period last year. In December, Saudi Arabia's CP stopped falling and turned up, which may boost the domestic and foreign LPG market prices.

In terms of international price, the positive correlation between LPG international price and crude oil price is high. Last week, international oil prices rose in shock. As of last Friday (December 16th), the settlement prices of the main contracts of WTI and Brent crude oil futures were US $74.29/barrel and US $79.04/barrel respectively, up 4.60% and 3.86% respectively from the previous week. Due to the trade process, the CIF price of LPG imports in China is often behind the futures price and spot price in the international market for a period of time. The impact of recent fluctuations in the price of LPG outside the market will gradually appear in the later CIF price of LPG imports.

In the domestic market, last week, the supply side increased, the demand side warmed up, and the market trading atmosphere was boosted. On the supply side, last week, the actual arrival of domestic imported LPG was less than expected, and the arrival cargo resources were relatively dispersed; The domestic gas volume mainly comes from local refineries, and the domestic LPG output in the week increased compared with the previous week; On the whole, the total domestic LPG supply in the week increased compared with the previous week. On the demand side, the recent temperature has dropped significantly, and the demand for civil fuel has been slightly boosted; Industrial demand began to recover, and the operating rate increased. Specifically, in the propane deep processing field, the operating rate of PDH unit steadily increased compared with the previous week, and the demand for propane chemical industry steadily increased; In the butane deep processing field, the operating rates of MTBE and alkylation units were flat and rising compared with the previous week, among which the operating rates of alkylation units rose significantly, and the demand for butane chemicals rose significantly.

The compilation of China's comprehensive import CIF price index of LPG was jointly completed by the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, with the first calendar week of 2019 as the base period (the CIF price of China's comprehensive import of liquefied propane in that week is $513/ton, the price index is 100; the CIF price of China's comprehensive import of liquefied butane in that week is $512/ton, the price index is 100), Comprehensively reflect the CIF price level of LPG imports in China last week. This is a beneficial exploration for China to compile its own LPG benchmark price, which is conducive to improving market transparency, providing an important reference for the LPG chemical market, facilitating the timely and effective connection between the domestic market and the international market, and further enhancing China's influence in the international LPG market.