Crude Oil
21 December 2022
Crude Oil
Direction: Brent weak shock
Market review: WTI oil price fluctuated in the range of 70-78, and the near end structure remained weak. After the diesel cracking fell back, it remained at a high level of 55, indicating the contradiction between the support of the consumer end and the supply of crude oil itself.
Logical argument:
1.The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates by 50BP and maintained a hawkish tone. The US dollar index may stabilize and strengthen, putting some pressure on US stocks and commodities
2.The commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States has accumulated significantly, mainly due to the decline of refinery construction and the increase of strategic dumping and storage. In terms of overall data, the consumption is average, and the continuity of the rise is not enough for the time being. However, the United States has collected and stored 3 million barrels, and the demand for storage and storage is lower after the low price
3.The short-term trade in Russia oil is still in progress. Russia-India cooperation have been strengthened to further guarantee the export of Russia crude oil. The expectation of Russia oil production reduction has temporarily fallen short of the existing interest
4.For the time being, the pressure of weak demand in China is still occur. At present, the load of main refineries have been reduced. With the arrival of the epidemic peak, the pressure of gasoline demand is high, and there may be some negative effects on overall consumption
Strategy: Weak shock mainly
Risk tips: 1. China's epidemic policy 2. SC in recent months
Direction: Brent weak shock
Market review: WTI oil price fluctuated in the range of 70-78, and the near end structure remained weak. After the diesel cracking fell back, it remained at a high level of 55, indicating the contradiction between the support of the consumer end and the supply of crude oil itself.
Logical argument:
1.The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates by 50BP and maintained a hawkish tone. The US dollar index may stabilize and strengthen, putting some pressure on US stocks and commodities
2.The commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States has accumulated significantly, mainly due to the decline of refinery construction and the increase of strategic dumping and storage. In terms of overall data, the consumption is average, and the continuity of the rise is not enough for the time being. However, the United States has collected and stored 3 million barrels, and the demand for storage and storage is lower after the low price
3.The short-term trade in Russia oil is still in progress. Russia-India cooperation have been strengthened to further guarantee the export of Russia crude oil. The expectation of Russia oil production reduction has temporarily fallen short of the existing interest
4.For the time being, the pressure of weak demand in China is still occur. At present, the load of main refineries have been reduced. With the arrival of the epidemic peak, the pressure of gasoline demand is high, and there may be some negative effects on overall consumption
Strategy: Weak shock mainly
Risk tips: 1. China's epidemic policy 2. SC in recent months
The difference between Brent and WTI has strengthened at low level monthly, and the diesel cracking has strengthened greatly
Price difference of downstream products
Stock
