From December 26th, 2022 to January 1th, 2023, China's comprehensive import CIF price index of liquefied propane and butane will be 133.30 points and 133.00 points

From December 26th, 2022 to January 1th, 2023, China's comprehensive import CIF price index of liquefied propane and butane will be 133.30 points and 133.00 points

On January 4th, 2023, the China's comprehensive import CIF price index of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) released by the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center showed that from December 26th, 2022 to January 1th, 2023, the China's comprehensive import CIF price index of liquefied propane was 133.30 points, down 4.62% month on month and 7.93% year on year; China's comprehensive CIF import price index of liquefied butane was 133.00 points, down 1.83% month on month and 1.12% year on year.

 

In terms of international pricing benchmark, according to the data released by CP of Saudi Aramco in December 2022; The contract price (CP) of propane in December was 650 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last month, up 6.56% month on month and down 18.24% year on year; The contract price (CP) of butane in December was 650 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.56% month on month, and a decrease of 13.33% compared with the same period last year; In December, Saudi Arabia's CP continued to rise, rebounding from the lowest price level in recent year, which may boost the current domestic and foreign LPG market price level.

 

 

In terms of international price, the positive correlation between LPG international price and crude oil price is high. From the perspective of crude oil price, the international oil price has risen for three consecutive weeks, which is also the second consecutive year on month increase. This week's rise in oil prices was mainly boosted by several positive factors: after the U.S. and Western crude oil export price restriction order to Russia came into effect on December 5th, Russia issued a decree to deal with the oil price ceiling, prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products to countries with price ceilings, increasing the risk of Russian supply reduction; US weekly crude oil production declined, and the output growth rate will slow down next year. On the other hand, some US refineries closed in the winter storm resumed operation, and the US government started the plan to fill the strategic oil reserve inventory, which will increase the demand for crude oil. As of last Friday, the settlement prices of the main contracts of WTI and Brent crude oil futures were 80.26 dollars/barrel and 85.91 dollars/barrel respectively, up 0.88% and 2.37% respectively from the previous week. The recent continuous rise in international oil prices may, to some extent, boost the current domestic and international LPG market price levels. Due to the trade process, the CIF price of LPG imports in China is often behind the futures price and spot price in the international market for a period of time. The impact of recent fluctuations in the price of LPG outside the market will gradually appear in the later CIF price of LPG imports.

 

In the domestic market, the supply was improved, the demand side was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light. On the supply side, the actual arrival of domestic imported LPG last week was in line with expectations, and the arrival resources were mainly concentrated in East China and South China; The domestic gas volume mainly comes from local refineries, and the domestic LPG output in the week fell month on month compared with the previous week; On the whole, the total domestic LPG supply in the week was higher than the previous week, and the supply side fundamentals were favorable. From the perspective of demand side, recently, the control of epidemic situation has been liberalized, the number of people infected in various places has increased, and the reduction of social activities has led to the decline of civil gas demand; Industrial demand has increased. Specifically, in terms of chemical deep processing, in the field of propane deep processing, the operating rate of PDH unit has slightly increased compared with the previous week, and the demand for propane chemical industry has steadily increased; In the butane deep processing field, the operating rate of MTBE increased and the operating rate of alkylation unit was flat month on month compared with the previous week, and the demand for butane chemical industry gradually rebounded. On the whole, the amount of resources arriving at Hong Kong last week met expectations; The domestic gas volume rose month on month compared with the previous week, and the overall market supply increased compared with the previous week; Recently, the epidemic situation has been liberalized, the number of infected people has increased, social activities have decreased, and civilian demand has declined; The industrial demand has declined, the demand for propane chemical industry has declined steadily, and the demand for butane chemical industry has continued to decline. The prices of most products in the domestic liquefied gas industry chain fell last week, and weak demand is still the main factor holding back the current price decline.

 

The compilation of China's LPG comprehensive import CIF price index was jointly completed by the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, Taking the first calendar week of 2019 as the base period (the comprehensive CIF import price of liquefied propane in China in the current week is $521.00/ton, and the price index is 100; the comprehensive CIF import price of liquefied butane in China in the current week is $520.00/ton, and the price index is 100), it comprehensively reflects the CIF import price level of LPG in China in the previous week. This is a beneficial exploration for China to compile its own LPG benchmark price, which is conducive to improving market transparency, providing an important reference for the marketization of LPG chemical industry, facilitating the timely and effective connection between the domestic market and the international market, and further enhancing China's influence on the international LPG market.